Monday, February 13, 2012

CMHC's take on Edmonton's housing market

We attended a Verico seminar on February 7th and received a heads up on CMHC's (Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation) predictions for Edmonton's housing market in 2012. Let's take a look at some of the highlights:

  • Edmonton is seeing steady migration (from within country and out of country); the Canada Revenue Agency reports approximately 16,000 migrated to Edmonton last year (this would not include those who do not file taxes)
  • CMHC expects housing prices to increase 3% in 2012
  • we are still below the 10 year average for home sales, but we are getting closer. CMHC guesses that by 2013, home sales will be back up to the 10 year average
  • it is a little more expensive to purchase this year than last year, but still much lower than 2010. CMHC anticipates low mortgage interest rates will help to drive sales
  • it appears that home buyers looking over the 500k range are buying new-built homes
  • a larger amount of sales for lower-priced condominiums resales and more affordable single family home resales is skewing the average home resale price
  • CMHC predicts that vacancy rates for apartment rentals will be less than 3% this year - perhaps nearing the 2.5% mark, which will mean less rental incentives and perhaps higher rent this year
  • there is a lot of job creation and unemployment was at a low in 2011; however, employment rates are not yet driving home sales like they were before
  • Municipalities across Alberta are trying to put a cap on urban sprawl. Several Calgary builders are moving to Edmonton, as Edmonton is still expanding their land base. Calgary is encouraging more multi-family properties; Edmonton is following suit, but a bit more slowly
Overall, this looks like good news for Edmonton. Enjoy the sunshine - we hope you have a great week!

Bob Hanscom Mortgage Agency